As human beings, we like to think of ourselves as rational creatures, capable of overcoming our emotional impulses. Yet it turns out that we not only tend to act irrationally, but we do so in a predictable fashion.
In the new book “Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions,” Dan Ariely, a professor at MIT, offers an empirical approach to reveal the underlying logic to our illogic. In a recent New Yorker article, he states, “our irrational behaviors are neither random nor senseless—they are systematic. We all make the same types of mistakes over and over.” He argues that we’re so attached to certain kinds of errors that we’re not capable of even recognizing them as errors.
Ariely’s field, behavioral economics, has been around for about 25 years mostly as a result of the work done in the 70's by Israeli-American psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. After examining how people deal with uncertainty, they found that there were consistent biases to the responses and that these biases could be traced to mental shortcuts—what they deemed “heuristics.” Some of these heuristics were fairly obvious, such as making inferences based on our own experiences (i.e.: people who’ve recently witnessed a traffic accident will overestimate the danger of dying in a car crash). But others were more surprising or even silly. For example:
- Tversky and Kahneman asked subjects to estimate what proportion of African nations were members of the UN. By spinning a wheel of numbers in front of them, they found that they could influence the subjects’ responses: when a big number turned up, the estimates suddenly swelled.
- Ariely and a colleague asked students at MIT's Sloan School of Management to write the last two digits of their Social Security number at the top of a sheet of paper. Students were then asked to record (on the same piece of paper) whether they were willing to pay that many dollars for a fancy bottle of wine, a not-so fancy bottle of wine, a book or a box of chocolates. The students were also told to record the maximum amount they’d be willing to spend on these items. At the end of this exercise, Ariely asked the students whether they thought their social security numbers influenced their bids at all. The students of course dismissed the idea, but after Ariely tallied the results he found that students whose SS number ended with the lowest figures (00 to 19) were the lowest bidders. For all of the items combined, they were willing to offer $67 on average. The students in the middle group—20 to 39—were somewhat more free-spending, offering $102 on average. The pattern continued up to the highest group—80 to 99—whose members were willing to spend an average of a $198, or three times as much as those in the lowest group, for the same items. And these are MBA candidates!
- In another study, subjects were willing to help out others—moving a couch, performing a tedious exercise on a computer—when they were offered a reasonable wage. However, when they were offered less money, they were less likely to make an effort. Yet when they were asked to help for free, they started trying again.
Tversky’s and Kahneman’s initial discoveries have been confirmed and extended over the years in dozens of experiments and even awarded them the Nobel Prize in 1996. This research even extends to democratic theory—demonstrating how voters decisions’ are influenced by factors such as how names are placed on a ballot—as well as Americans’ inability to save money. Clearly this work had some disruptive implications for the field of economics—after all, how can you regard people as rational calculators if their decisions are influenced by random numbers?
We can see this at work both in the online and offline marketing world. For example, Amazon.com offers “free super saver shipping” if you increase your order (which often costs us more than we originally intended to spend—but we ration that we’re ‘saving’). Ariely also gives the example of the board of prices at Starbucks, where it’s the other numbers on the board influencing your opinion on what the tall non-fat cappuccino is worth (and not the interplay of supply and demand as microeconomics would have us believe).
We need to become more aware of these patterns and also learn to accept our irrationality humanity.